澳洲幸运5🔯开奖号码历史查询: The U.S. econ☂omy keeps defying expectations.

In the past month, employers have added more jobs than forecasters expected, consumers 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:have spent more, the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:economy has grown more, and businesses have 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:raised prices more. Report after report shows the economy running hotter than expected, with people generally spending more money and doing more stuff than economists thought they ꧙would. 

While it’s not unusual for econ𒅌omic forecasts to be wrong—predicting the future in any arena is extremely difficult—the forecasts have consistently been off in the same direction, underestimating how willing people have been to part with their money. 

One of the most prominent examples of this phenomenon is inflation. A key monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index, came in 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:hotter than expected last week for the third month in a row, 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:sending shockwaves through financi🌄al markets as inves𝐆tors are no longer convinced the Federal Reserve will roll back its anti-inflation interest rate hikes any time soon. 

What are the forecasters missing? It all comes down to the behavior of consumers, said Kurt Rankin, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group

For example, Rankin’s models predicted that as prices for necessities rose, U.S. consumers would cut back on luxuries like dining out. That would reduce demand at restaurants and cause a key measure of restaurant prices called “food away from home” in the CPI, to fall. Instead, grocery prices have remained relatively stable while prices at restaurants have shot up, suggesting that more people are dining out, budget be damned. 

"You can only generate forecasts for inflation based on what rational behavior would dictate,” Rankin told Investopedia. Consumers continue to defy economists' conventional wisdom by spending through their income and savings as well as accumulating credit card debt without cutting back on spending, Rankin said.

Indeed, data on consumer finances shows people are 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:putting more purchases on plastic to maintain their lifestyles as prices rise. And with interest rates for credit cards at multi-decade highs, alternatives, such as 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:buy-now-pay-later plans, have grown more popular. 

And because all of that data is connected—consumer spending can power economic growth as measured by the Gross Domestic Product, which can encourage businesses to hire more, which can stoke inflation—one assumption being off can throw many forecasts out of whack.

“All these things, month after month, are defying economic convention,” Rankin said. “It's a vicious cycle of one number coming in stronger than expected and then it’s the domino effect, where everything else including inflation consistently overshoots expectations.”