Major Moves 

While it's difficult to say for sure, the market's near-positive performance today seems to mirror the optimism about a trade deal between the U.S. and China dominating the financial headlines. The top negotiator for the Chinese, Liu He, will be in Washington on Thursday, which could result in some further positive rumors/news on Friday.

The concerns about the U.S.-China trade relationship encompass more than just the damage higher tariffs might do to U.S. retailers, consumer spending or agricultural exports from domestic producers. Tariffs designed to cause economic damage in China are likely to spread to other 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:emerging markets like India and South America. As you can see in the following⛄ chart, despite today's recovery in U.S. equities, Indian stocks were down another 1.6%.

There is a strong relationship between emerging markets and 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:commodity prices, which is a real weak spot for the United States' two largest export partners: Canada and Mexico. In other words, if China's economy cont🗹racts, commodity prices will fall. That hurts Canada and Mexico (commodity export dependent economies), which in turn will reduce demand for U.S. goods and services inꦓ those markets.

S&P 500

Although the major U.S. indexes did less-bad today, I am still concerned that volatility expectations remain high. I would put very favorable odds on a short-term bounce, but the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or market fear index, is clearly reflecting a "wait and see" attitude from investors. Now that first quarter earnings a🐽re mostly behind us, I think investors will potentially over-focus on trade issues, which will likely keep the average trading range fairly wide in the sho🎃rt term.

However, as I have said a few times over the past two weeks, a short-term 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:consolidation in the S&P 500 as the index hits its prior highs is not unusual nor alarming. In my view, the fact that small-cap indexes like the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Russell 2000 have remained above their recent breakout&♑nbsp;points is an extremely encouraging sign that risk takers are sti𒁏ll looking for good opportunities.

I will be looking for things over the next two weeks that would confirm a recovery like better performance in the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:high-yield bond market and transportation stocks. Both of💎 these key categories have been too weak for my comfort, and a return to prior highs (or a breakout) would in🌠crease my confidence that the major stock indexes are due for another run higher.

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Risk Indicators – No Signs of Full Panic

As I have previously written, the VIX has been flashing some important short-term warning signals, but I think there is good evidence that investors still aren't worried about a full market panic.

One of the key market indicators I rely on is the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:SKEW index. Like the VIX, the SKEW is published by the CBOE exchange and is a measure of investor behavior through the options market. Specifically, the SKEW looks at what is happening to 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:put options on the S&P 5⭕00 that are used by professionals to hedge against downside risk.

If investors expect a large decline in the market, the SKEW will spike higher because those put options are in demand. The SKEW will decline when investors are more confident and not as worried about✤ a big move to the downside.

In the ♎following chart, you can see how the SKEW was signaling market panic with spikes starting last August as the S&P 500 was topping out just before the big declines in the fourth quarter. Compare the current move in the SKEW to prior periods of confidence like late December and January. Even as the market was selling off on Tuesday, the SKEW was falling and pricing i🐎n a low probability for a big decline.

This index isn't 100% predictive, but in my experience, when the SKEW is declining with the market, it is a reliable signal that the downturn is likely to be limited in size and duration. Basically, it indicates that, although traders are stressed, the market's dips will turn into buying opportunities.

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Bottom Line - Watch Inflation Data

As I mentioned in Monday's Chart Advisor issue, the biggest economic news due this week is the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Producer Price Index (PPI) tomorrow morning and the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The PPI will be particularly interesting because investors may be able to detect damage from the tariffs in the data. I am not expecting a big surജprise, but unlike ordinary PPI releases, this one has the potential to move the market if the data is particularly poor.

Specifically, what investors will be looking for is whetherꦑ producer (manufacturing) prices are rising because of the tariffs. That kind of💮 inflation will put the squeeze on Washington and may help to motivate a short-term resolution to the current trade disputes.

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