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Forecasting Mortgage Rates: Buy, Sell, or Refi?

People sitting in a meeting room and signing Up-Front Mortgage Insurance (UFMI) contract.

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If you’re like most people who are paying off a mortgage or looking to buy or sell a home, chances are you pay attention to where mortgage rates are heading. Mortgage interest rates directly affect your monthly payments and the cost of owning a home long-term. When interest rates are low, it might be a good time to think about refinancing if it would sufficiently reduce your monthly paymen𝓡ts. Low rates can also present a good time to buy or sell. Buyers can secure a mortgage at a low rate, while sellers can benefit from the competitive market.

Key Takeaways

  • Mortgage interest rates can be influenced by a number of factors, including inflation, geopolitical events, and unemployment levels.
  • The Federal Reserve can raise the federal funds rate to curb rising inflation, which can indirectly impact mortgage interest rates.
  • When interest rates rise, home buying becomes more expensive; when rates drop, home affordability increases.
  • Using an online mortgage calculator can help you decide if buying, selling, or refinancing makes sense in the current interest rate environment.

Why Mortgage Rate Change

Average interest rates for mortgages reached a 23-year peak of nearly 8.00% in October 2023, but those rates have been coming down in 2024. When 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:mortgage rates reached their high point, the federal funds rate had been at a two-decade high after 11 increases from March 2022 through July 2023 in an effort to bring down inflation. However, in September 2024, the Fed 澳洲🎀幸运5开奖号码历史查询:cut rates for the first time since 2020, reducing them by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%–5.00%.

While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it does set the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:federal funds rate. This is the rate at which banks lend money to one another. Changes to the federal funds rate can affect changes in bond yields, which in🎐 turn influences mortgage rates. Further rate cuts would bring mortga🌃ge rates even lower.

How Rates Impact Your Buying Power

If you were to buy a home for $300,000 with a 20% down payment and finance the remainder with a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4.5%, your monthly payment would be $1,216.04. Financing the same home at 6% would๊ raise your payments to $1,438.92, over $200 more a month. If you can’t afford that extra $200, then you’ll have to reduce your home-buying bu💙dget, simply because rates have risen.

Using a mortgage calculator is a good way to compare these costs.

If Mortgage Rates Drop

If you have an 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and rates fall or remain the same, you may want to consider refinancing with a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:fixed-rate loan to take the stress out of worrying about rising rates in the years to come. Interest rates for ARMs, also known as variable-rate mortgages, are lower initially than fixed-rate loans for a given period—five years, for example. After the introductory period ends, rates rise according to market indexes, eventually surpassing the rate for fixed-rate loans.

Important

Upward adjust༺ments to 🃏an ARM interest rate can substantially increase your monthly mortgage payment.

If you have a fixed-rate loan and rates fall, it may be worth looking at refinancing it into a shorter-term loan. For example, if you have 20 years left on a 30-year mortgage, it may make sense to refinance the remaining 20 years into a new 15-year mortgage. Rates on 15-year mortgages are also lower than 30-year mortgages. Combine that with a rate drop, and you could save on the amount of interest paid and pay off🐭 your mortgag𓆉e sooner.

When refinancing, always consider your unique set of circumstances. Factor in 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:closing costs and how long it will take to realize the cost benefits. How long, for example, do you plan to live in your home before selling? Will you break even before you plan to sell? Generally speaking, the larger the outstanding mortgage, the more impact lower rates can have on your monthly payments. You might consider if a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:variable- or fixed-rate mortgage is a better option.  

And, of course, lower rates mean you 🐓can afford more house—and more people can afford your house—so it can be a goꦆod time to buy or sell a home.

Fast Fact

When refinancing, also consider whether you’ll still have to pay 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:private mortgage insurance (PMI) on the loan, and if not, how m𒀰uch𒊎 that might reduce your monthly payment.

Rising Mortgage Rates

When rates rise and you have a low-interest fixed-rate mortgage and are not looking to sell or buy, you can happily stay the course and sleep well at night. But if you need a larger home or have to relocate, keep in mind the long-term view that, historically, home values have kept up with 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:inflation. In addition, as inflation rises, your 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:♊mortgage payments on a fixed-rate loa🍎n remain the same.

Also, consider that median prices for homes have risen post-recession. If the value of your home has gone up, so has 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:your equity. Equity is the amount of the home you own minus the outstanding loan balance. In a rising-interest-rate environment, you might want to reconsider whether now is a good time to rඣefinance your mortgage.

A 10% rise in value on a $300,000 home means $30,000 more in your pocket when you sell. This can help with putting down a larger 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:down payment when you buy your next home and help offset higher interest rates by lowering 🦄your monthly payment.

While a rising-interest-rate environment isn’t ideal for buying and selling, if it comes with more equity, ﷺthat e🅰xtra money can help cancel out the effect of higher interest rates. 

Will Mortgage Interest Rates Go Up in 2025?

The Federal Reserve cut rates in September 2024, and is expected to do so again if inflation continues to come down. This trend may continue into 2025 as well. Just how much mortgage rates are likely to decrease is unclear, but they are already🐈 declining alongside decreases in the base interest 🎃rate.

Should I Lock My Rate Now or Wait?

Locking your interest rate could help you to secure a lower rate on a mortgage if rates rise before you close on the property. Whether it makes sense to lock your rate is a personal decision, and you may want to talk to your mortgage professional about the pros and cons. Also, consider whether your lender will charge any fees to lock your rate or allow you to purchase points to buy down the rate.

Is Now a Good Time to Refinance?

The best time to refinance a mortgage loan is usually when you’re able to get a lower interest rate and/or more favorable loan terms. Whether it makes 𓄧sense for you to refinance your mortgage can depend on your reasons for wanting to do so and how much you might be able to reduce your rate or monthly payment by.

How Do I Shop for Mortgage Rates?

Shopping for mortgage rates starts with deciding what type of home loan will work best for your needs. Rates for conventional loans, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans, and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans can vary, and one type of loan may be a better fit than another. Once you choose a mortgage option, you can then 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:compare mortgage rates from different lenders online to see who has the best rates. Learn what’s important about 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:locking in a good rate.

The Bottom Line

The consensus is that interest rates in 2024 and beyond will continue to decline, as the Federal Reserve has indicated it wishes to lower its benchmark rate. However, economic conditions can change, so the Fed's actions are never fully predictable. If you are looking to buy or refinance, it always is best to speak with a financial professional to discuss your best options, including whether you should act now or wait.

Article Sources
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