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Inflation Drives Consumer Sentiment Lower, Raises Interest Rate Fears

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Key Takeaways

  • After two relatively steady months, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October to 63.8, down from September’s 67.9.
  • Consumers are worried that higher prices will worsen, with expectations that inflation will be 4.2% a year from now.
  • High-income consumers showed the biggest drop in confidence, showing that spending could slow.
  • Consumer expectations of inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high.

Inflation worries continue to weigh on consumers, who in October had a more pessimistic economic outlook than in September, according to the latest figures from the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

The final reading for October was 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:better than the preliminary reading released two weeks ago, improving to 63.8 from 63, but it’s still 6% lower than September’s revised reading of 67.9, and the first monthly decline after two months of little change. The result beat economists' forecasts, which anticipated that the final result would remain unchanged.

澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Inflation concerns 🌃worsened, with consumers’ expectation for priꩲce changes one year from now at 4.2%, the highest reading since May 2023, and up from the 3.2% year-ahead inflation expectations that consumers had in September. For long-term inflation, representing prices five years from now, consumers see it reaching 3.0%, up from last month’s figure of 2.8%. 

The report, especially consumers’ expectations on inflation, could also influence the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Federal Reserve, which has engaged in a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to bring infla🐼tion down to a target annual rate of 2%.

“Elevated infl🌊ation expectations will reiterate the need for restrictive monetary policy among Fed officials as they prepare for next week’s policy meeting,” wrote Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide Financial.

Sentiment Falls Among High-Income Consumers 

The latest consumer sentiment survey comes amid recent weakness in the stock market, with the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:𝔉Nasdaq reaching its lowest level since May, adding to falls in other major indexes ꧋over൩ recent weeks. 

“This decline was driven in large part by higher-income consumers and those with sizable stock holdings, consistent with recent weakness in 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:equity markets,” wrote Joanne Hsu, director of the Michig💞an Surveys of Consumers🍒. 

The declining optimism fꩵrom high-end consumers could spell trouble for the economy, Klachkin warned. 

“This suggests that the potential boost to consumer spending from a favorable 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:wealth effect may dissipate,” he wrote. 

Consumer expectations for business conditions over the next year fell 16%, while their expectations for their own finances fell 8%, re🍒flecting worries about inflation as well as other negative news, both domestically and internationally. 

Overall, the index for current economic conditions declined during the month, falling to 70.6 from September’s 71.1, while the consumer expectation index dived nearly 10%, falling to 59.3 in October from September’s 65.8.

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