In discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, neither the perpetuity growth model nor the exit multiple approach is likely to render a perfectly accurate estimate of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:terminal value. Which method is best for calculating terminal value depends partly on whether an investor wishes to obtain an optimistic or co🐼nservative estimate. Generally speaking, using the perpetuity growth model to estimate terminal value renders a higher value.

Understanding Terminal Value and DCF Analysis

澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:DCF analysis is a common method of equity evaluation. DCF analysis aims to determine a company's 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:net present value (NPV) by estimating the company's future 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:free cash flows. The projection of free cash flows is done first for a given forecast period, such as five or 10 years. This part of DCF analysis is more likely to render a reasonably accurate estimate, since it is obviously easier to project a company's growth rate and revenues for the next five years than it is for the next 1ꦆ5 or 20 year🐈s.

However, the structure of the NPV calculation using DCF analysis requires an additional cash flow projection beyond the given initial forecast period. This second calculation renders terminal value. Without including this second calculation, an analyst would be making the unreasonable projection that the company would simply cease operating at the end of the initial foreca💙st period.

The calculation of terminal value is a critical part of DCF analysis because terminal value usually accounts fꦿor app🔥roximately 70 to 80% of the total NPV figure.

Terminal Value Complexities

Calculation of terminal value is inherently problematic, however. Over longer periods, there is a greater likelihood that economic or market conditions—or both—may significantly shift in a way that substantially impacts a company's growth rate. The accuracy of financial projections tends to diminish exponentially as projections are made further into the future.

The Perpetuity Growth Model

There are two principal methods used for calculating terminal values. The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:perpetuity growth model assumes that the growth rate of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:free cash flows in the final year of the initial forecas꧙t period will contin💯ue indefinitely into the future.

Although this projection cannot be completely accurate, since no company grows at exactly the same rate for an infinite future period, it is a reasonably acceptable projection of terminal value because it is based on the company's historical performance. The perpetuity growth model usually renders a higher terminal value than the alternative, the exit multiple model.

The Exit Multiple Model

The exit multiple model for calculating terminal value of a company's cash flows estimates cash flows by using a multiple of earnings. Sometimes equity multiples, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, are used to calculate terminal value. A commonly used approach is to use multiple 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) or ear♋nings before interest, taxes, depreciation, ꧂and amortization (EBITDA).

For example, suppose companies in the same sector as the company being analyzed are trading at, on average, five times EBIT/EV. In that case, the terminal value is calculated as five times the company's average EBIT over the initial forecast period.

The Bottom Line

Since neither terminal value calculation is perfect, investors can benefit by doing a DCF analysis using both 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:terminal value calculations and then using an average of the two values for a fi😼nal estimate of NPV.